[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N19W 2N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 14W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND GULF OF
MEXICO MOVING OVER THE W ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS MOVED
INTO THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE GULF WITH CLEAR
SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
E GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AN DIS BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE W GULF BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE FAR W GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWER  ACTIVITY. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AFR W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN  WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 16N81W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER
CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W UPPER WINDS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM 75W-83W
AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS
THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 33N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W
OVER CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE FRONT WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N65W. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND
32N57W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1022 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N46W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 20W-45W WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N26W SW TO 24N37W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE
ATLC E OF E OF 60W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH
INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING
THE AREA E OF 20W AND CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS
CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE




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