[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-9N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 78W S OF
12N.  WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 74W-79W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 5N45W 4N51W.  THE ITCZ
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-32W...AND FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1S-2N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
10 KT WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS ALONG 28N96W 23N97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 93W-95W.
ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE AIRMASS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A AXIS ALONG 90W.  AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W
GULF W OF 87W.  FLORIDA IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N AND E OF 84W.   EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE
WLY FLOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF W OF
90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A 1008
MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 71W-78W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.  EXPECT MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N79W
24N79W.  ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N71W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
59W-63W.  SW TO ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N70W.  A 1022 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-84W.   WLY FLOW IS N OF
20N E OF 60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR
11N13W.

$$
FORMOSA



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