[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 77W S OF
12N. WAVE PLACEMENT IS ONCE AGAIN BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE CURVATURE IS EVIDENT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EPAC LATER TODAY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N22W 5N35W 4N51W. THE ITCZ
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST
CLUSTERS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW
FORMING NEAR 27N86W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LIES JUST E OF THE
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OUT OF THE EPAC STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN
88W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SWATH OF MOISTURE...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. MORE IMPRESSIVE
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NEAR THE UPPER LOW N OF 26N W OF 95W.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF
THEM STRONG TO SEVERE...IN S TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE GULF E OF 88W KEEPING THIS AREA FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF
COAST ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE SECTOR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 87W. AN
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN 72W-87W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING FROM A TROPICAL ATLC UPPER HIGH STRETCHES EWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND RIDGES. ONE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE
EPAC OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. ANOTHER
PLUME...MUCH WEAKER...EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO THE GREATER
ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT EXISTS. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY
THE TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT IN THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUT WEAKER IN THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THOSE MAGNITUDES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WEAK HIGH PRES STAYS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RATHER BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF
MEXICO COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING TWO SFC TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N79W TO 23N80W. WHILE THIS TROUGH
IS RATHER WEAK IT IS WELL DEFINED WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SMALL SCALE TSTMS. A STRONGER SFC TROUGH
IS LOCATED ALONG 32N59W 27N67W 21N71W. A SWATH OF MOISTURE IS
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SFC LOWS ALONG
THE TROUGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE
DISSIPATED. GFS STILL DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLACKED OFF.  FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N FROM 18W-40W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 30N40W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N51W GIVING THE
AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG 8N/9N TO NEAR
50W SUPPLYING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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