[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed May 31 05:36:54 CDT 2006


AXNT20 KNHC 311035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG
76W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED
UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE
WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA/W PANAMA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA E
OF 78W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N30W 6N42W 4N52W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-42W AND FROM 9N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 28N95W. SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W N TO INLAND OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY GENERATING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 91W TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E
PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 25N FROM
92W-97W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC
IS RETROGRADING ACROSS FLORIDA NOW EXTENDING OVER E GULF AND NW
CARIBBEAN E OF 86W BRINGING WITH IT DRY AIR KEEPING THE E GULF
CLEAR AND RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 85W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND E
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM
70W-85W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W TO 14N70W
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY
SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING
THE AREA W OF 66W ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N78W S JUST W OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
NEAR 24N80W. DRY UPPER AIR IS SEVERELY LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N57W N TO
BEYOND 32N51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 33N59W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1014
MB LOW NEAR 28N63W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 57W-70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N FROM 18W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW
WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 31N42W GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. AN UPPER HIGH
IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N18W WITH AN E/W RIDGE
ALONG 8N/9N TO NEAR 50W.

$$
WALLACE



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