[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010438
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SLIGHT
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
PANAMA ALONG 79W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS
BASED UPON CONTINUITY DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND
OVER COLOMBIA/W PANAMA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N26W 4N40W 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IN THE NW GULF WITH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 20N89W N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR
THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO TO CENTRAL
AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE SW GULF. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA EXTENDING OVER E
GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN E OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO W
CUBA NEAR 23N81W. UPPER DRY AIR IN PLACE IS KEEPING THE E GULF
CLEAR AND RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 85W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND E
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM
70W-85W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W TO 16N70W
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER PANAMA AND THE CLOSE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
11N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N70W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING
THE AREA W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO W
CUBA NEAR 23N81W. DRY UPPER AIR IS SEVERELY LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG 59W FROM THE TROPICS TO NEAR 32N. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 30N61W ALONG 25N67W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 53W-64W. VERY BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 16N E
OF 45W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND LOW WELL N OF THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC
E OF 55W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N36W AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N41W TO 26N44W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N21W WITH AN E/W RIDGE ALONG
10N40W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N61W.

$$
WALLACE


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