[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA ALONG 68W/69W S OF 10N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS
WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE IF ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS
WAVE WILL LIKELY ENTER THE EPAC LATE TUE AND SOME MODELS SHOW
THE WAVE BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.

...THE ITCZ...
A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY OFF
THE AFRICAN COAST E OF 16W S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-21W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N72W
IN THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF.  MID-UPPER
RIDGING IS WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/WEST GULF
WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 89W/90W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W GULF WHICH IS PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-97W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STRONG STORMS OVER S
TEXAS...W LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC
REFLECTION...NOTED AS A TROUGH IN THE 1500 UTC ANALYSIS...LIES
ALONG 96W FROM 20N-26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1019 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N87W. SFC WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
SOME 20 KT BUOY OBS IN THE SW GULF IN OR NEAR THE CONVECTION.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE E GULF WEATHER THRU
MID-WEEK. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE W GULF THRU WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE W ATLC AND
W CARIBBEAN...NAMELY FROM 60W-83W N OF 17N. THE UPPER AXIS RUNS
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N72W TO NEAR 17N86W. AN ASSOCIATED
DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N71W INTO THE W BAHAMAS ALONG 27N77W 24N80W. MULTILAYER CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 52W-67W. THIS AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE FAVORABLE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST. A WEAK
1016 MB SFC LOW DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR 27N61W WITH SFC
TROUGHING NEWARD TO 29N56W AND SEWARD TO 23N59W. SINCE
THEN...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1016 MB
LOW HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH A NEW LOW-LEVEL SWIRL EVIDENT
ON VIS PICTURES NEAR 24N66W. GFS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW...DRIFTING NWARD WITH A
COUPLE WEAK SFC LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN. IN THE S CARIBBEAN...BROAD
NARROW UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE S AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RAIN FREE. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ON THE S PERIPHERY OF THE NARROW
RIDGE OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15 KT AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THRU MID-WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N31W. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN THE E
ATLC SFC RIDGE IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA
ALONG 32N34W 25N44W. ONLY A LINE OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 23N57W 32N53W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
32N33W 24N36W TO 20N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
E OF 33W S OF 20N PRODUCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE HELPING TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
SEWARD ACROSS NW AFRICA. MANY OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
NOT VERY AMPLIFIED BUT ARE PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY AREA OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N49W
21N28W 25N15W WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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