[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291101 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

CORRECTED FOR STATIONARY FRONT IN ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION
INSTEAD OF COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA/
EASTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 10N. NO DEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 4N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...WHILE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING AND PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING SOUTH OF THERE IN
INTERIOR GUYANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND
55W NORTH OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N
TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 44W
AND 46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST
OF 20W...AND SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 25W AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER IN EAST
TEXAS TO THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
CLUSTERS ARE IN EAST TEXAS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND
MOVING OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS WEST OF 89W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR A 33N72W LOW CENTER TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE 90W RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
HAITI AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W...TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION IN COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG ITCZ-RELATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO
10N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CLOUD MASSES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NEAR A 33N72W LOW CENTER...OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NORTHEASTWARD TO 30N76W TO 34N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N76W 30N73W 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA...AND A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA. A 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS
HIGH CENTER AND IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH AND THE TROUGH ALONG 27N62W 20N66W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
22N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
23N57W 32N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N36W TO 20N40W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 26N40W TO 24N47W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N34W 27N40W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N40W 25N44W 25N49W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM 10N30W TO 20N32W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 26N EAST
OF 26W AROUND A LOW CENTER NEAR 34N18W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net