[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA ALONG 69W/70W S OF 10N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. THIS
WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF THE MOVEMENT OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE IF ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN
68W-71W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 3N30W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 18W-22W...FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 25W-29W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 34W-38W...FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N94W
19N96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 91W-95W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  10-15 KT SW SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH A
AXIS ALONG 94W.   A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W.  AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF BETWEEN 88W-94W.  EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE SWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  THE E GULF SHOULD
HAVE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 74W-83W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 68W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N...AND OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1014 MB LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N65W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 29N53W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGHS.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-80W.   WLY FLOW IS N OF
20N E OF 60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR
11N13W.

$$
FORMOSA


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