[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65/66W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT
ACROSS VENEZUELA.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 1N40W 1N51W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 2W-10W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 30W-32W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 35W-40W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
29N86W.  5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF 24N AND E
OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND S
GEORGIA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  10-15 KT SW FLOW IS NOTED
IN THE W GULF W OF 90W.  A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE
30N93W 26N97W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 97W-99W.  FURTHER S...NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
95W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT
THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE N INTO GEORGIA BY MONDAY EVENING.
ONSHORE RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W.  THE E GULF SHOULD HAVE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 74W-77W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 78W-81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 67W-72W.  SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-67W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF E CUBA ALONG 25N73W 21N75W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A 1026
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N49W.  A COLD FRONT
IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N35W 27N40W 24N50W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES W ALONG 23N57W 21N65W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N E OF
60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N13W.

$$
FORMOSA




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