[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64/65W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT
ACROSS VENEZUELA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
65W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE NE PORTION
OF VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N30W 2N40W 2N51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN AROUND 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-39W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 20-30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS WEST OF 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED OVER SOUTH MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SPREADING OVER THE AREA WEST OF 90W...INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. AS OF 1500
UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W.
10-15 KT E/SE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT ACROSS THE NE
PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH. AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG TSTMS IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COST OF TEXAS FROM
27N-29N ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TROUGH
THURSDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN
SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN EAST OF 80W...WITH THE DRIEST AIR FROM
11N-14N...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO
THE EPAC ITCZ. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALSO OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE WITH
TRADES DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 31N37W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 24N-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS WWD FROM THIS POINT TO 23N64W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21.5-24.5 BETWEEN 55W-65W IS
RELATED TO THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 72/73W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTER BAHAMAS/CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC JUST N OF 29N WEST OF 70W
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A WEAK RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. BROAD AND LARGE
SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N16W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES
ALONG THE E ATLC...WHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS.

$$
GR



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