[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG
66W/67W SOUTH OF 10N. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW AREAS OF OLD CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM
2N TO 6N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ITCZ
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 6W AND
10W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 30W AND
33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER IN EAST
TEXAS TO THE MEXICO COAST IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
CLUSTERS EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
NEAR 17N96W TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W TO 25N98W TO AN AREA
OF ALREADY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION NEAR 29N99W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR A 32N72W LOW CENTER...OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N79W...ONLY A LITTLE BIT NORTHWEST OF
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO EAST OF THE 90W RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AREA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 12N83W 12N76W...AND EVERYWHERE ELSE TO 60W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND JAMAICA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SOME PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. NUMEROUS STRONG ITCZ-RELATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NEAR A 32N72W LOW CENTER...OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 19N79W TO 15N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIES
THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST IN THE AREA OF THE
CURRENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE THERE BY DAY TWO. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N70W 30N74W 29N76W 28N77W 28N79W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING OR HAVE DISSIPATED COMPLETELY ALREADY. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A
1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 34N49W TO 34N61W TO 32N67W TO 27N72W TO
NEARLY THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N57W 23N61W 21N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 23N57W
32N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. SOME PRECIPITATION WAS
OCCURRING A FEW HOURS EARLIER FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 53W AND
57W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF YESTERDAY
HAS MOVED A BIT MORE EASTWARD...NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N33W TO
24N36W TO 20N40W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N40W TO 24N46W. BROKEN LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N34W 27N40W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N40W 25N44W 25N49W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 10N30W TO 20N32W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 26W AROUND A LOW CENTER NEAR 34N18W.

$$
MT




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