[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION TO JUST
OVER PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W S OF 8N DRIFTING W. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 7N17W 5N34W 3N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 16W-27W AND
FROM THE EQUATOR 7N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL COVERS THE S GULF.
THE ONLY SURFACE FEATURE IS A WEAKENING 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 27N86W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL OVER THE SE
GULF INCLUDING W CUBA AND FAR S FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF OF A LINE
FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA MOVING E INTO THE W ATLC BUT ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N88W. E PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING MOST OF CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E PACIFIC. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN
48W-75W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N55W TO
28N58W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 26N64W TO 27N71W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS TO THE E ALONG 32N47W TO 27N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 25N W OF 45W. E
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE GULF
INTO THE W ATLC BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 75W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ENTIRE N COAST OF CUBA AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. SHARP AND NARROWING UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 31N33W SSW
INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N42W. ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 10N15W N TO 32N22W COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 28W. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N31W TO 24N42W.

$$
WALLACE


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