[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST NEAR 5-10
KT. THE WAVE HAS AN ILL-DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 280 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND OVER S AMERICA LATER TODAY AND WILL BECOME VERY
DIFFICULT TO TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 9N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT.
MUCH OF THIS WAVE IS IN THE EPAC BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENSION LIES
OVER PANAMA. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AND EXPANDED THIS MORNING
AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 7W-18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS ALSO WITHIN 280 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-42W
ENHANCED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W/39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OFF THE W COAST OF
AFRICA E OF 10W N OF 3N.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM LOUISIANA SWWARD TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE UPPER LOW
PREVIOUSLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY. BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED OVER MEXICO
AND THE S CENTRAL U.S. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA NW OF A
LINE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXTENDS SE OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL JET SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE GULF AND A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE E
CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A SWATH OF SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER S FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY BE
INFLUENCING SOME INSTABILITY. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N85W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SFC RIDGING IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EXTREME SE
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE N LESSER
ANTILLES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION E OF 80W
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING KEEPING THE AREA
RAIN FREE. A TROPICAL SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET LIES ON THE W
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO
THE W ATLC. THE UPPER JET IS CARRYING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
TAPPED FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW
AND A  TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EPAC AND SPREADING IN NEWARD CARRIED
BY THE JET. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION ENHANCED BY A SFC
TROUGH HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 86W-88W. AT THE SFC...WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PRES
IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE AREA PRODUCING TRADEWINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS TO THE N OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH HAS PUSHED SEWARD COVERING THE ZONE FROM
50W-70W N OF 25. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE S OF THE
AREA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH UPPER RIDGING ALONG 60W. IN
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC IS CARRIED BY A 80-100 KT UPPER JET
WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE ALONG 24N80W 25N60W 32N45W. AT THE
SFC...TWO WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE
EASTERN-MOST ONE ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N48W 27N55W. A BAND OF
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A SECONDARY FRONT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING
EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 35N55W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
32N56W 27N64W 27N68W. ONLY A NARROW BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED IN THE E ATLC NEAR 20N31W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE E ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING. AN UPPER TROUGH  STRETCHES ACROSS N AFRICA. AT THE
SFC...A 1031 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN AND IS SUPPLYING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG IN THE E ATLC...IN FACT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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