[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT AT THE SURFACE...
APPEARS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
47W AND 50W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N80W
12N82W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF PANAMA...JUST WEST OF
COLOMBIA...IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N37W 2N44W 2N47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 13W AND 16W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEAK NORTH CENTRAL GULF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM SIX HOURS AGO...APPEARS TO BE COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL
DEVELOPED NOW AS IT WAS THEN. THE BROAD SENSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS POSSIBLE CENTER COVERS THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 85W
AND 94W. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
IS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 20 KT TO 45 KT
ACCORDING TO THE 25/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA...ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA
AND BEYOND 25N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W.
A RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS NOT
AS OBVIOUS NOW AS IT WAS THEN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AND MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND NOW ARE INLAND IN BELIZE
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FORMING JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N63W. BROAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 20 KT TO 45 KT BAND OF WINDS WHICH RUNS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND
WESTERN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N80W
12N82W. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF PANAMA...JUST WEST OF
COLOMBIA...IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED
TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 27N66W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THROUGH 33N60W
TO 30N65W. AN ALREADY EXISTING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W
TO 27N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 24N45W TO
23N52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W BEYOND
32N50W. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W 25N70W 24N80W. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N70W 28N60W BEYOND 32N50W. THE
25/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW 100 KT WINDS
ABOUT 60 NM NORTHEAST OF THE BASE OF THE 32N62W 27N66W MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 17N29W WITH A TROUGH TO 11N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH PUSHING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 17N29W LOW AND THE CAPE VERDE RIDGE...
COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS AFRICA...FROM MOROCCO
EASTWARD...AROUND A TROUGH WITH A CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF MOROCCO.

$$
MT


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