[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT AT THE SURFACE...
APPEARS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 47W
AND 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 10N. EARLIER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W HAS LEFT BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N9W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 2N45W 3N48W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...
AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...
AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER ALREADY EXISTS OR IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. IT IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. THE BROAD SENSE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS POSSIBLE CENTER COVERS THE GULF
WATERS BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. ANOTHER SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WIND SPEEDS RANGE
FROM 40 KT TO 50 KT ACCORDING TO THE 25/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA...ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA
AND BEYOND 25N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER NEAR 28N85W.
A RIDGE RUNS FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING EARLIER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED...LEAVING MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N63W. BROAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 40 KT TO 50 KT BAND OF WINDS WHICH RUNS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND
WESTERN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W HAS LEFT BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. IT IS MOST PROBABLE
THAT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 10N ALSO. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA
INTO WESTERN HONDURAS FOR THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO WESTERN HONDURAS AND REMAINED THERE
ONLY. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOPED IN WESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N73W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
33N50W TO 29N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS FOUND THROUGH BERMUDA
TO 30N70W AND 30N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N32W TO
27N52W TO 26N61W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N60W BEYOND 32N50W. MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N60W 25N70W 24N80W. A BAND OF
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N70W 28N60W BEYOND
32N50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 17N29W WITH
A TROUGH TO 11N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THIS TROUGH PUSHING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TOP OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND PARTS OF AFRICA EAST OF THERE. A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THESE TWO EARLIER
FEATURES...COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF
40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS AFRICA...FROM
MOROCCO EASTWARD...AROUND A TROUGH WITH A CENTER IN CENTRAL
MOROCCO.

$$
MT


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