[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260634
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO THE
COASTLINE BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...ALSO COVERING PANAMA AND
NEARBY WATERS IN EITHER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ ALSO IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N10W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W 5N47W 5N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 40W...AND FROM EQUATOR
TO 8N OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICA COASTLINE
BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH RUNS FROM A WEAK SOUTHERN GEORGIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER TO A SECOND WEAK LOW CENTER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS NEAR 28N92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF
20N97W 24N90W 27N83W 28N80W. THIS 20N97W 28N80W LINE IS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAND OF WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE 26/0300 UTC CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 50 KT
TO 80 KT SOUTH OF THE 20N97W 28N80W LINE OF CLOUDS. A SURFACE
RIDGE RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N70W TO 28N80W JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 26N88W
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 15N83W AT THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO 19N81W TO 21N73W AND BEYOND 21N68W.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND/WIND
BAND ALSO BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE WIND SPEEDS IN THIS BAND OF WINDS RANGES FROM 20 KT TO 40 KT.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N65W. BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF 9N FROM PANAMA INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...ALSO COVERING PANAMA AND
NEARBY WATERS IN EITHER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ ALSO IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W
RANGE FROM 40 KT TO 60 KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA AT 26/0300 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE TWO ATLANTIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N55W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
23N56W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 30N54W.
THIS FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N54W TO 27N60W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 39W WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND BAND IS NOT AS MUCH AS COMPARED TO THE CLOUD BAND OF
24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW
CENTER NEAR 22N30W TO 14N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH PUSHING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 22N30W LOW AND THE CAPE VERDE RIDGE...
COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 40W.

$$
MT


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