[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222313
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED BUT WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ
AXIS.

TROPICAL IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND NOT GENERATING SHOWERS
OR CONVECTION IN THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N25W 3N40W 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-23W AND FROM 31W-46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINING AREA S OF 6N
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N94W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
HISPANIOLA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 25N85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO 17N90W. E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN OVER THE E
GULF...GENERATING AND BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF
89W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY N
OF THE YUCATAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE W ATLC AS WELL AND AN E/W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 55W
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO AREAS. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. THE SECOND AREA IS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 79W TO OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
IS GENERATING CONVECTION...BUT IT REMAINS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 55W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. GENEROUS
AMOUNT OF UPPER MOISTURE FROM OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC BUT ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 75W.
SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 32N51W ALONG 24N46W TO 13N45W.THE ONLY SURFACE
REFLECTION THAT REMAINS IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
28N51W TO 20N54W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 8N26W THROUGH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 20N29W TO
32N31W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1027 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
30N39W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ATLC E OF 60W.

$$
WALLACE




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