[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W 20 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DECENT CYCLONIC TURNING IN
THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. HOWEVER...THE ONLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE IS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 63W/64W S OF 9N
MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS ITS
SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N32W 3N40W 2N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS
WESTWARD WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W AND
22W. ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INDICATED WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 32W AND 50W...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
TO 25N86W AND WAS DRIFTING WESTWARD...SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS FEATURE. SURFACE TROUGH
IS INTERACTING WITH A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 24N94W TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS OVER THE GULF E OF 90W AND AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ITSELF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF GENERALLY WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE THROUGH 24.5N82W 24.5N86W 22N88.5W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 24N94W WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WAS WRAPPING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
THE E GULF...FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST E OF 90W. THIS SCENARIO
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ONLY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED W OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRIMARILY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SOUTHWARD THROUGH 20N87W TO 14.5N88W. THE TROUGH WAS
DRIFTING WESTWARD. OVERALL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD 15 KT AND EXTENDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...ST
THOMAS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED BETWEEN  HAITI
AND JAMAICA NEAR 19N76W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF
82W. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N56W 25N64W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W AND WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
19N76W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N48W WAS BECOMING
ELONGATED WITH TIME AND SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 14N
BETWEEN 40W-50W. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
30W-40W. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 10W-30W WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N
BETWEEN 10W-40W.

$$
COBB






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