[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  INVERTED
V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
31W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER E COLOMBIA ALONG 68W S OF 10N
MOVING W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 66W-69W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 4N30W 4N40W 3N50W.  AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 5E-4W MOVING W.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 27W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 90W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 26N89W TO 19N92W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N93W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W.  THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED OVER THIS AREA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
LIGHT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S
FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 89W-91W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER W COLOMBIA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 74W-78W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 82W.  SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
82W.  EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO
HAVE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 32N80W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT.  A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N39W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N43W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
15N BETWEEN 37W-50W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N AND E OF 37W.  A
ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA



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