[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.  ALTHOUGH
IT IS LOW-LATITUDE..THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITH A BROAD
CIRCULATION.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 41W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT.  A V-TYPE
SIGNATURE IS EMBEDDED MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AND THERE IS ALSO
GOOD SUPPORT FROM MODEL FIELDS FOR THIS WAVE.  LONG TERM LOOPS
SUGGEST THAT IT SLOWLY MOVED TO THIS LOCATION AND NOW IS MOVING
MORE QUICKLY UNDER THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3.5N36W 3N43W EQ41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS AIDING IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND TO THE
W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN COLOMBIA THRU PANAMA S OF 11N.  A SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE WAVE IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS TO
THE N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 2N42W EQ50W.  OUTSIDE OF
TROPICAL WAVES.. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 2N W OF 44W AND
FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 10N-14W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY AS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITIES.  A
PERSISTENT E COAST TROUGH WHICH IS FINALLY HEADING EASTWARD BUT
HAVE LEFT A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE
MEXICO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING BENEATH THE GULF TROUGH
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA HAS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE GULF.  RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING ALONG S TEXAS AND 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETURN OVERNIGHT.  RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ENTERING FROM THE SE ON SUN THAT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS...
PERHAPS SPREADING INTO S FLORIDA ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA... STRETCHING
FROM 31N64W INTO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W INTO A WEAK LOW SW
OF E CUBA NEAR 19N79W.  UPPER WINDS ARE PARALLELING THE FRONT
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT
N OF CUBA TO 29N.  FARTHER S.. THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT
ARE NOW A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO
13N79W.  SCATTERED TSTMS ARE W OF THE TROUGH S OF 14N W OF 80W
TO JUST ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NE THRU HAITI TO 30N53W...
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES
WESTWARD.  THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS HIGH AND DRY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH.  HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL MAY BE
MOISTENING UP SOMEWHAT AS A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS ARE
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE N OF 13N BETWEEN 50W-62W.. INCREASING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF TRADEWIND SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  TRADES SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THRU 32N32W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N42W THEN INTO
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N48W. THE UPPER LOW HAS A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM
19N-24N.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTM ARE WITHIN
180 NM OF 24N41W.  IN THE TROPICAL ATLC... MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES S OF 25N W OF 40W WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ENHANCING TSTMS IN THE ITCZ.  THE RELATED SFC TROUGH IS
THE ONLY BLEMISH TO A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE
AZORES.  THIS RIDGE IS CAUSING TRADES TO BE NEAR OR STRONGER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE BASIN AND ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA
SHOULD HAVE STRONG TRADES THRU THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER CAPE VERDES RIDGING NW THRU THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
SW TO 10N39W.  THIS UPPER HIGH IS MUCH FARTHER N THAN NORMAL
WITH DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE HIGH SUPPORTING TSTMS IN THE ITCZ AND
THE NEARBY TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
BLAKE



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