[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS AIDING IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND TO THE W OF
THE AXIS OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 20W. W OF 20W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 2N BETWEEN 2E-2W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT DIGS SWD INTO THE GULF N OF 27N. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ALL OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS WELL E OF THE AREA. A
1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL/W GULF NEAR 25N91W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE S
AND CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...FROM 15-20 KT
...ACROSS THE N GULF AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN
U.S. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EWD FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF FROM
23N-27N AND S OF 22N W OF 88W. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES. MODELS INDICATE THAT REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE S GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE E U.S. AND W
ATLC. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY IN MUCH
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING EWD FROM
32N64W TO 26N70W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA. THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 12N82W. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP EWD TITLED UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH N OF
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA NEAR 13N71W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION AIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS MOISTURE IS THEN ADVECTED NEWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SFC
FRONT. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS IN THE W ATLC FROM 23N-29N
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS THE STRONGEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 72W-84W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT PULLS NEWD. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH OR POSSIBLY A VERY WEAK LOW MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT IS IN THE W BAHAMAS ALONG 77W/78W FROM
23N-27N. A SIMILAR RATHER BENIGN FEATURE IS OFF THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA ALONG 79W FROM 26N-31N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN NAMELY E OF 65W...SPREADING SLOWLY WWD. TRADES ARE LIGHT
IN THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TRADES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM IN
THE CARIBBEAN AS THE WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATES
AND A SPRAWLING CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE BUILDS SWWD.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THRU 32N30W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N41W THEN INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS NEAR 10N53W. THE UPPER LOW HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 26N37W TO 18N42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE UPPER
LOW. THE SFC TROUGH CONTAMINATES A SPRAWLING 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 36N29W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N19W N TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND WNW TO 12N34W. BESIDES FOR THE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW...NEARLY ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC HAS FAIR WEATHER UNDER SFC HIGH PRES. THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD
SWWD INTO THE CNTRL ATLC THIS WEEKEND SUPPLYING MUCH OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER.

$$
CANGIALOSI





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