[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD
ROTATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WAVE IS ALREADY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
AND BE HARD TO TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 1N36W TO THE ITCZ AXIS
NEAR 1N42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 12N DRIFTING W. THIS WAVE HAS
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AT THE BASE OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CARIBBEAN. SEE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 5N22W 6N32W 4N39W EQ51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
19W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-15W AND N OF THE AXIS FROM
40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA INTO THE NW ATLC CLIPS THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AND CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 25N88W...BUT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE S GULF IS
UNDER SW UPPER FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO A 1014 MB LOW
JUST W OF JAMAICA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S TO 14N77W.
A SHARP UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...E OF THE
FRONT...FROM COLOMBIA TO AN UPPER HIGH S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N72W EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THUS...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP E OF
THE FRONT N OF 17N TO 70W AND S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER COLOMBIA MOVING ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
FROM 71W-77W INCLUDING LAKE MARACAIBO. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N73W SW TO 30N78W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF AND W ATLC
YESTERDAY REMAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N60W 26N69W
ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 21N77W. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
FRONT S OF 27N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150/180 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 31N.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 30N34W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 21N42W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS AND SOUTH AMERICA BEYOND
8N61W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 44W/45W FROM 19N-26N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E
ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS N TO
30N25W LEAVING THE E ATLC SHOWER FREE.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net