[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14+N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS
RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT SIGNATURE DISTINGUISHABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS E OF 28W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS W OF
28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO N
OF 26N. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SEWARD. AS OF 09
UTC...IT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO A WEAK 1006 MB LOW JUST W OF KEY
WEST THEN THRU THE W CARIBBEAN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
A SMALL SWIRL IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELD IS EVIDENT NEAR KEY
WEST AND TREATED AS A 1006 MB LOW AS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED WELL E OF THE AREA IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC. FAIR WEATHER IS WIDESPREAD W OF 85W UNDER
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. SFC WINDS ARE NLY BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 15 KT.
A 1016 MB HIGH HAS BUILT EWARD NOW LOCATED NEAR 25N95W. THE COLD
FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TO THE E CLEARING THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
EWD. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND GENERATING FAIR
WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG
25N64W 32N61W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N75W TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N78W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO A 1006
MB LOW NEAR KEY WEST THEN ACROSS W CUBA TO 17N89W. A LARGE SWATH OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 14N84W TO EASTERN CUBA. N OF CUBA...THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGES
WITH THE SFC FRONT AND STRETCHES WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM E CUBA
TO 30N72W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS COLDER THAN -85C IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE. FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 73W IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND E OF 65W IN THE W ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 75W. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THRU THU AND THEN WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. A
1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N49W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-60W KEEPING MUCH OF THIS AREA
RAIN FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N FROM 25W-55W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N21W 25N32W 19N46W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
FRONT...MOST CONCENTRATED FROM 20N-24N AND N OF 29N. A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH IS SQUEEZED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N20W. IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N43W NEWARD TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 15N17W GENERATING STABLE AIR ALOFT MINIMIZING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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