[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS
RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT SIGNATURE DISTINGUISHABLE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING UP WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS E OF 28W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SURROUND THE AXIS W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH ITS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO N
OF 25N. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO A 1007 MB
LOW 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF NAPLES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA. SIMILAR RAINFALL IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE E GULF E OF 86W S OF 28N. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED E OF THE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
W ATLC. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS W OF 86W UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. SFC
WINDS ARE NLY W OF 86W NEAR 15 KT. THE COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TO THE E CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY
ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GENERATING FAIR
WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG
25N65W 32N62W. A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIES ON
THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC AND
EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE ALONG 14N85W TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN WITHIN 180 NM TO
30N73W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N75W TO S
FLORIDA THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS COLDER THAN -90C IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
73W-77W MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. FAIR
WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN AND E OF 65W IN THE W
ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE
FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 78W. THESE WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THRU THU AND THEN WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LARGE
SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE
WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. A
1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N51W IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR IS
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-60W KEEPING MUCH OF THIS AREA
RAIN FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N FROM 26W-55W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N22W 26N32W 22N44W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS SQUEEZED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N25W. IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N45W NEWARD TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 15N17W GENERATING STABLE AIR ALOFT MINIMIZING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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