[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHED AHEAD TO 66W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT.
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE HAS ACCELERATED INTO THE
SE CARIBBEAN.  WAVE IS POSITIONED NEAR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL
VENEZUELA.  A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
NEAR THE WAVE.. OTHERWISE LITTLE EFFECTS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N35W 3N51W.  POSSIBLE WAVE
ALONG 26W IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM OF 3N27W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 18W-24W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 3N E OF 10W.


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT HAS LEFT THE AREA WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS
REMAINING OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF.  1018 MB HIGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF NE MEXICO IS CAUSING MUCH DRIER AIR TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD
IN THE REGION.  DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH IS STILL ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND COULD STILL CAUSE PERIODIC PERIODS OF CLOUDS/ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE SE PART OF THE REGION THRU TOMORROW UNTIL THE UPPER
FEATURE MOVES THRU.  HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND GENERATING FAIR
WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N73W
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD TO HAITI BEYOND 31N60W.  TO
THE W...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N75W TO 23N82W
IN W CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN INTO NE HONDURAS.  SEVERAL
WEAK LOWS ARE ALONG THE FRONT SPURRING AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.  SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.  FARTHER S...BROAD 1010
MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W ACCORDING TO SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BECAME MORE EVIDENT IN SW
CARIBBEAN'S DIFFLUENT UPPER ENVIRONMENT.  THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE CAYMANS TO NW COLOMBIA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
WEST AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 74W-82W.  THE
WEATHER IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS QUIET WITH STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE
MOSTLY E TO SE TRADES AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS.  FRONT SHOULD
STALL IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME HEAVY
RAINS/FLOODING TO E CUBA/JAMAICA BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD LATE FRI.
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS COULD
APPROACH S FLORIDA ON SUN.  THE RESTRENGTHENING OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG TRADES IN THE
CARIBBEAN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 31N39W TO 10N57W IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA
BETWEEN 20W-60W.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE E
ATLC FROM 31N21W TO 22N35W DISSIPATING TO 18N46W.  ENHANCED
MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
FRONT E OF 40W.  ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE IS A LARGE
BROAD HIGH OVER THE E ATLC... RIDGING NORTHWARD FROM 11N30W TO
WESTERN SAHARA AND FROM W AFRICA NEAR 7N11W WESTWARD TO 9N35W.  A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE ITCZ S OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
TRADES ARE QUITE WEAK IN THE TROPICAL ATLC TODAY BUT RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE STRONGEST TRADES
IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.  STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLC FOR QUITE SOME TIME.. PROBABLY LIMITING THE
PENETRATION OF MANY FRONTS.

$$
BLAKE

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