[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 36W S OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT.  THE
WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE IN SCOPE BUT STILL PRESENTS A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DEEPER CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 2N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 3E-3W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM
2S-2N BETWEEN 43W-47W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 49W-52W...AND FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 23N90W.  RAIN WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM S OF FRONT.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
ALONG 23N90W 21N94W 18N95W 20N98W 23N99W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.  WINDS ARE NLY 10 KT N OF
THE FRONTS...AND STILL SLY 5-10KT S OF THE FRONTS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF THE FRONTS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FROM YESTERDAY.  SMOKE IS STILL S OF THE
FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES...WHILE A
RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  A 90 KT JET IS OVER THE NRN GULF
N OF 27N.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.  UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE NE GULF AND PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS.  THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL STILL HAVE A POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N88W TO
16N90W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 21N71W
TO 16N73W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
60W-70W.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 61W-62W.  10-15 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA W OF 80W HAS NUMEROUS FIRES FEEDING
SMOKE INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA CHANNEL.  LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER THE ISLAND IS POSSIBLE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN N OF 10N E OF 73W.  EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN ...AND THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MAINTAIN A PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 71W-73W.
RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N54W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N38W 20N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 73W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-73W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  ELY FLOW IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM EQ-8N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

$$
FORMOSA





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