[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS REPOSITIONED ALONG 31W/32W BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 5230W 3N40W 5N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-32W...JUST BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM EQ-6N WEST
OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N. AS OF
0900 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N85W 2ON93W
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF VERACRUZ...THEN NW ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. AS OF 1000 UTC...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A VERY WELL
DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RELATED TO THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS LINE EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO EVERGLADES.
UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL
AFFECTING NE MEXICO AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 88W/89W. REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE GULF ARE UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MIAMI DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WILL BE SE OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NELY WINDS OF
10-15 KT WILL BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILT IN
TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE W CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
HONDURAS...GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW UPPER FLOW W OF 80W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
N OF 12N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY
UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA
AND REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STILL GENERATING
MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. SE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA COULD REACH WESTERN CUBA
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN US. A SHARP UPPER
RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N77W NNE TO BEYOND 32N75W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 45W-70W. THERE ARE SEVERAL
SURFACE FEATURES...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N76W THEN
CONTINUES SW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES
ALONG 74W/75W JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE SW ATLC FROM 24N68W TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N71W...WEAK 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N55W...AND A DEEPENING
1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30.5N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 20N57W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 28N-31N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF 45W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY
SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 23N30W. AN
UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N.

$$
GR




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