[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 34W/35W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE BUT STILL FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10W 4N20W 4N30W 3N40W 5N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80/100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 25W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 28N. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF ALONG 29N82W 23N90W
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W...THEN NW ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF 26N85W. UPPER
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY AFFECTING
NE MEXICO AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR TO
GUATEMALA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA THAT
LIES ALONG 88W/89W. REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF
ARE UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL BE SE OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY. NELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WILL BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILT IN TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE W CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
HONDURAS...GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW UPPER FLOW W OF 80W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
N OF 12N E OF HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY
UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA
IS GENERATING MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. SE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD
REACH WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W NNE TO BEYOND 32N75W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 45W-70W. BENEATH
THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES...A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC FROM 24N60W TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 18N70W...WEAK 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N56W...AND A
DEEPENING 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 22N51W. MODERATE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED THE SW ATLC SURFACE TROUGH ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
60W-69W. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO FOUND JUST EAST OF EAST
FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N WEST OF 77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED
TO THE EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF 45W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER
FREE WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N37W AND A 1017 MB
FURTHER E NEAR 29N21W AND A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING
THEM. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
18N.

$$
GR



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