[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 33W/34W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE BUT STILL FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10W 5N15W 3N26W 5N35W 3N44W 5N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 7W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-33W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 29N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF
OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N91W OFF THE MEXICO
NEAR 23N96W THEN DIPS FURTHER S TO S OF TUXPAN...THEN NW ALONG
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF
26N85W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER MEXICO FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED ARE ACTUALLY IN THE GULF WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
VERACRUZ. REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE UNDER A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF COAST GIVING
THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NE OVER MEXICO THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE W CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
HONDURAS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW UPPER FLOW W OF 80W. THIS IS
GENERATING MODERATE/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA FROM NW
VENEZUELA TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF HISPANIOLA
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 82W SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS
GENERATING MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER PUERTO
RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOVING SE INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W NNE TO BEYOND 32N75W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N FROM 74W-78W. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 45W-71W.
BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH ARE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES...A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW ATLC FROM 25N66W TO OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W...WEAK 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
30N57W...AND A DEEPENING 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N54W. MODERATE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED THE SW ATLC SURFACE TROUGH ARE FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 22N51W-TO
31N40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E
OF 45W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N38W AND A 1017 MB FURTHER E NEAR 30N27W AND
A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH SEPARATING THEM. STRONG UPPER E/W RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N WITH THE AXIS ALONG
10N/12N KEEPING THE ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE S.

$$
WALLACE


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