[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ALONG 36W/37W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10
KT. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS
PREVIOUSLY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N14W 3N26W 4N34W 2N44W 2N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 8W-17W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
21W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 8N
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 28N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE S GULF ALONG 22N92W THEN S INTO MEXICO
NEAR 1894W RETURNING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT
HAVE NOT ENTERED THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER HIGH ACROSS E CUBA COVERS THE FAR S GULF S OF 24N.
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE UNDER NEAR ZONAL
FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE OVER
MEXICO THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL NOT
INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL LATE SUN INTO MON. THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS ALONG 83W COVERING THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM NW VENEZUELA TO PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF 77W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 75W SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ACROSS THE PENINSULAS OF HAITI GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM
67W-70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ORIGINATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHARP UPPER RIDGE IS
IN THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM A WEAK UPPER HIGH NEAR 24N65W N TO
BEYOND BERMUDA. THIS IS AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N FROM 65W-70W. BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLC N OF 21N FROM
30W-60W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG 32N
FROM 38W-50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 31N35W SW TO 24N47W WITH A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH TO THE W NEAR
26N54W. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N36W TO BEYOND 32N30W.
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N30W
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 24N28W AND W TO NEAR 10N56W.
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE NE ATLC WITH A WEAK 1019
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N20W.

$$
WALLACE


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