[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092234
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N21W 3N32W 1N43W 1N51W.
CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING ACROSS SW
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
1N3W-3N8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 8W-28W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN
30W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE W ATLC IS ALONG THE
NE GULF COAST STATES FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA...GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY TO INLAND OVER W
ALABAMA. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES GIVING THE GULF SW TO W
UPPER FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE OVER
MEXICO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
INLAND OVER MEXICO. IN SPITE OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD AND
VIRTUALLY SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WILL THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE FIRES
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF SMOKE IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA
NEAR 10N81W NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES. THIS IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
COLOMBIA THROUGH NICARAGUA. UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDUCED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE
BEGINNING TO DIE OUT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 26N WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N69W TO A
WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N78W CONTINUING W OVER FLORIDA
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 13N BETWEEN 45W-65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N29W ALONG 28N41W TO A 1016 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N52W THEN SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH BETWEEN 20N-25N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N38W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N.

$$
WALLACE


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