[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N24W 2N40W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SW AFRICA FROM 6N-13N E OF
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS E
OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM
2S-4N BETWEEN 54W-63W...INCLUDING THE SE PORTION OF VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA CROSSING
JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES GIVING THE GULF SW TO W UPPER FLOW. SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST
NORTH OF 20N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS VIRTUALLY SHOWER
FREE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT. MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWIND OF AROUND 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE SEA...MAINLY EAST OF 80W.
TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE AROUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. A
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTM EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO WNW AND CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COASTLINE. REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA...MOVING
TOWARD THE EPAC. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
TSTM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS N OF 26N WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N67W TO A
WEAK 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N76W CONTINUING W OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 25N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N30W ALONG 28N40W TO A
1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N51W THEN SW TO E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 21N-24N. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
SEEN OVER THE ATLC EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
GR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net