[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue May 9 12:58:27 CDT 2006

AXNT20 KNHC 091755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N25W 3N40W 3N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 1W-10W.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-25W...AND FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 35W-42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 30N80W 30N84W 31N86W.
A SMALL BAND OF PREFRONTAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS NOW ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY.  10-15 KT SLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
THE NE CORNER...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.  RAIN HELPED
CLEAR SMOKE FROM THESE AREAS.  FIRES ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER
CUBA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N AND W OF 90W.
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE FRONT
OVER FLORIDA TO SLIP SE TO THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC.
MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SLY FLOW
AND FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W.  THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE
FLOW.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...W CUBA W OF 80W HAS NUMEROUS FIRES
FEEDING SMOKE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND E OF 67W.
ELSEWHERE...A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN N COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN
...AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MAINTAIN A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 30N76W
30N80W.  A WEAK 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT NEAR
30N78W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-78W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N58W
23N70W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N50W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 21N55W 17N65W.  ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO
BEYOND 32N30W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
25N33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-70W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  ELY FLOW
IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 60W.

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N. AS OF 0900Z...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-70W...THEN CONTINUES WSW
ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND CONTINUING
ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N34W. THIS
FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO. LARGE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN
25W-40W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W SW TO A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N52W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD. ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAINLY OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.

$$
FORMOSA

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