[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N25W 3N40W 3N50W. CLUSTERS OF
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF AFRICA
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE
AXIS EAST OF 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 37W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...COLD/STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC REMAINS
ALONG NORTH FLORIDA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF AND WEST FLORIDA
JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE GULF NORTH OF 24N INTO THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING OFF OVER S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS ALMOST SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
ITS AXIS ALONG 64-65W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE GREATER
ANTILLES. AN OLD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS STILL GENERATING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE. A SUBTROPICAL JET
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS OVER EL
SALVADOR IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS TSTM ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N. AS OF 0900Z...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-70W...THEN CONTINUES WSW
ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND CONTINUING
ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N34W. THIS
FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO. LARGE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN
25W-40W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W SW TO A
1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N52W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD. ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAINLY OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.

$$
GR




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net