[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 3N52W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NW INLAND AND
ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 14W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN FROM
1.5N-4N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM
SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM THE ITCZ AXIS N TO 7N
BETWEEN 22W-26W AND WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST
OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE W
ATLC IS ALONG NORTH FLORIDA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
EPAC ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF NORTH OF 25N INTO THE
STATE OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING N OVER S MEXICO IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH CLOUDINESS
FROM THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING OFF OVER MEXICO INTO THE SW
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS ALMOST SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.  AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 64W. UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO TO E CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA. DRY
UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SAME AREA. AN OLD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS STILL GENERATING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM OVER PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALSO PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PARTICULARLY FROM
13N-16N. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N. AS OF 0300Z...
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-70W...THEN
CONTINUES WSW ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE AND
CONTINUING ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N37W. A
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N
BETWEEN 25W-40W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N45W SW
TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N50W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE LOW. ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
THE TROPICS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ARE
SEEN EAST OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND MAINLY OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.

$$
GR



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