[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 072333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W. A FEW
WEAKENING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM OF
THE AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 30W. CLUSTERS OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS W AFRICA WITH ONE CLUSTER
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 7W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG MID-UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
GULF LIES ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 28N. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS N MEXICO INTO THE S
CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A COUPLE
FRONTAL LOWS LIES JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA SPRAWLED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. AS OF 2100 UTC...A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE RUNS
FROM 31N86.5W TO 30N83W. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS TRACKING EWD AND
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE SQUALL LINE IS TRIGGERED BY A BROAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE LOCATED OFF THE SE U.S. COASTLINE AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE GULF. LIGHT S FLOW COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W WITH
LIGHT SE/E FLOW W OF THERE. BROKEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT MAY SAG SLIGHTLY INTO THE
GULF TONIGHT OR TOMORROW BUT WILL NOT DIG FAR S. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE N GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SFC S RETURN FLOW THRU MID-WEEK. GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE NW GULF WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO STRONG MID-UPPER HIGHS COVER THE E AND W CARIBBEAN. ONE
UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA WITH THE OTHER CENTERED E
OF TRINIDAD NEAR 10N53W. A TROPICAL JET LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY
OF THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER HIGH DRAWING MOISTURE NWD FROM
CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA AND SPREADING IT TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA WITH A PATCH OF WEAKENING MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 77W-81W.
THERE IS SOME UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
THE UPPER HIGHS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE TROPICAL
JET FROM 15N-22N W OF 70W COVERING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND
CUBA. AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A STUBBORN CENTRAL ATLC
TROUGH CROSSES N LESSER ANTILLES FROM 18N60W TO 17N64W.
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY OF THE
STATIONS IN THE N LESSER ANTILLES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING N OF
THE AREA.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TRADE
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THAT
WAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS DISTANT NE OF THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLC W OF 60W EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT TROUGHING FROM 27N65W NEWD. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 60W. AT THE SFC...A
1019 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. FARTHER EAST...A SFC
TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N40W 23N53W 17N64W. A 1015 MB LOW
SITS ON THE SFC TROUGH NEAR 26N51W. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER. THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE ATLC BASIN FOR NEARLY A WEEK
NOW. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON DETERMINING
WHEN THIS TROUGH WOULD DISSIPATE. BASED UPON THE STRUCTURE...THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY LINGER AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR ITS
AXIS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
40W AND 63W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED
JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD-TOBAGO ISLANDS ALONG 53W.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING VERY CLOSE TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. A UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL JETSTREAM RUNS FROM 10N43W 14N24W 17N16W
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 125 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE
JET AXIS. AT THE SFC...RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE E ATLC WITH A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N27W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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