[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N24W 1N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4.5N7W 3.5N13W LINE
AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 9N15W 6N11W LINE. FURTHER W
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N24W 1N32W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 78W...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
GUATEMALA AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 23N91W INTO MISSISSIPPI.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 5N TO BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 78W AND ABOUT 105W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER NW GEORGIA
WITH A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW OVER MEXICO WITH A 1000 MB LOW NEAR
24N101.5W AND A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 20N97.5W. VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM
YESTERDAY INDICATES SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXCEPT THE NE PART.

BETWEEN 45W AND 78W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THIS AREA N
OF ABOUT 18N WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
32N58W TO 24N65W TO 18N75W. SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE MOVING E ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS N OF 27N. A JET
EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 15N75W THROUGH PUERTO
RICO TO 25N45W. SOUTH OF THE JET A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N55W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR TO 18N
BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. AT THE SURFACE A LINGERING TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 31N44W THROUGH A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N50W TO 18N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
TROUGH.

E OF 45W...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N. A
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N37W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CIRCULATION TO NEAR 28N38W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
31N26W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO 27N43W.

$$
CAB

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