[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W EQ50W. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
AROUND 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-37W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH MEXICO
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF.
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE E COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND OVER THE AREA EAST OF
90W. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE N GULF STATES
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
SEEN ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST NORTH OF TAMPICO. IN GENERAL
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF
STATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM
SLY RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH E CENTRAL CUBA TO
NEAR 15N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SUBTROPICAL
JET CROSSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 15N70W TO BEYOND 20N60W. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER THE CENTRAL-EAST CARIBBEAN AND
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W.
TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE TAIL END OF A
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE ATLANTIC IS STILL AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GUADALUPE REPORTED 1.88 INCHES OF RAIN THIS
MORNING AT 1200 UTC. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER
NORTHERN WATERS OF TROPICAL ATLC AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A PLUME OF SMOKE FROM MATANZAS
IN CUBA ALL THE WAY NORTH OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO
FORT MYERS IN WESTERN FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N67W ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AREA BETWEEN 40W AND
60W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST
OF TRINIDAD-TOBAGO ISLANDS. FURTHER TO THE EAST AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 37W N OF 22N. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS
LOCATED ALONG 25W N OF 20N AND A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING VERY CLOSE TO
THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA. MODERATE WESTERLIES ARE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TROPICS. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH
31N43W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N51W...THEN CONTINUES SWD TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N-62W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N-27W. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AND MAINLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.

$$
GR



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