[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N25W 2N32W 3N40W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N11W
6N16W 4N21W LINE...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N26W 1N36W
LINE...AND FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 16N94W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION
NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. A MIDDLE/
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NE GULF HAS
MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
MOVING E 20 TO 25 KNOTS. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 23N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH E CENTRAL CUBA TO
NEAR 15N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SUBTROPICAL
JET CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 16N75W TO BEYOND 24N56W. SW WINDS ARE
STRONGEST OVER/NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
60-70 KNOT RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE SE CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
CENTERED NEAR 13.5N78.5W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N67W ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA. A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N68W AND
MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 46W
AND 60W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N56W
TO 20N57W TO 32N56W. FURTHER TO THE EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 38W N OF 20N. A WEAK CYCLONIC
VORTEX IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 25N37W...MOVING ENE
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 28W N OF 20N
AND A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N8W TO 18N25W. MODERATE WESTERLIES
ARE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 8N TO 12N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N43W TO A 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 23N54W TO NEAR 18N60W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
26.5N62.5W.

$$
CAB


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