[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N22W 1N35W 1N50W. NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 6.5N11.5W 3.5N10W LINE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
6N13.5W 5N17W LINE...WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 3N25W...WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF A 3N27W 2N31W LINE...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 39W AND 44W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4N45W
1S48W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NE
GULF WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 86W. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. SCATTERED/BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO
NEAR 14N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA. A SUBTROPICAL
JET CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 15N75W TO BEYOND 22N63W. SW WINDS ARE
STRONGEST OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 60-70
KNOT RANGE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N70W AND
MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 48W
AND 62W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N57W
TO 20N58W TO 32N58W. FURTHER TO THE EAST A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 39W N OF 20N. A WEAK CYCLONIC
VORTEX IS LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 24N39W...MOVING ENE
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS LOCATED ALONG 30W N OF 20N
AND A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N10W TO 20N25W. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N45W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N56W TO
A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 17.5N61W.

$$
CAB

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