[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 2N20W 2S26W 2S36W...AND FROM 4N
TO 5N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN
36W AND 46W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...MOVING
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD AND GRADUAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND IN THE 03/0000 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND
NORTH OF 26N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND
FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD...FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N99W 35N96W FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A DRY LINE AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARE IN THESE AREAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 96W...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THANKS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD.
THIS FLOW REGIME IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI NEAR 19N73W TO 17N74W AND 14N74W. THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS
PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AS FAR NORTH AS 17N...ACROSS AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. ISOLATED CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM
9.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
JUST WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA TO COASTAL COLOMBIA.
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 57W.
THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT WHICH GOES FROM A 32N55W TRIPLE POINT TO 30N55W TO 24N60W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N60W TO 20N63W AND 16N65W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 16N TO 25N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. THIS PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SAME FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS EASTWARD UNTIL THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EITHER EXITS THE
REGION OR JUST DISSIPATES. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 50W NORTH OF 20N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM
14N41W TO 21N35W 29N24W AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JET STREAM RUNS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE.

$$
MT

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