[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W. F
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN
150 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS E OF 20W...AND WITHIN 150-200 NM
SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-40W. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 12W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL SWLY WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING
SUB-TROPICAL JET.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF...MAINLY SOUTH OF
25N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA. HIGH CLOUDS
COVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N-84W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND E/SE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING
ALSO THE STATE OF FLORIDA.  SFC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH
THRU THE GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST THE BASIN...WHILE THE BASE OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC IS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NWD FROM CONVECTION
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE STAYING S OF 17N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED S OF HAITI ALONG 74W FROM 14N-18W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER
SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING ATLC COLD FRONT INTO NE
PUERTO RICO. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ONCE AGAIN...THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE ISLANDS. ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCES...THIS TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AREA OVER VENEZUELA EAST
OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...WHILE ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N-15W.  A JETSTREAM OF 90-130 KT IS SE OF
THIS TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM 19N-31W TO INLAND IN WESTERN AFRICA
NEAR 29N-10W. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
TWO EMBEDDED CENTERS COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC W OF 60W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO 16N35W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THANKS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA . A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 31N55W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 23N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT INTO NE PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND E OF THE FRONT FROM
25N-30W BETWEEN 52W-55W. A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS JUST
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALL THE WAY E AND NE TO THE COAST
OF WESTERN AFRICA...CROSSING BETWEEN THE CANARY/CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

$$
GR



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