[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N8W 3N15W 1N30W 1N40W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N EAST OF 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 42W AND
50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
1N TO 2N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W...FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 36W AND
47W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W MOVING INLAND FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD AND GRADUAL
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND IN THE 03/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND
NORTH OF 25N/26N. PRETTY MUCH ALL THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TEXAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE LOST THEIR
POWER. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT. A DRY LINE STILL RUNS FROM
THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXISTS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THANKS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTWARD.
THIS FLOW REGIME IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS PUSHING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR NORTH AS 17N...ACROSS
AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS IN
VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE RANGE FROM -80C TO -85C AT THIS TIME AND
THE HEIGHTS OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE EASILY 50000 FEET OR HIGHER.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 8.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W
NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING SOME OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS PART OF VENEZUELA HAVE BEEN EASTERLY
WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOOTING OVER THE TOP...IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N73W 16N74W
14N74W FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI SOUTHWARD. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 57W. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH WHICH
STILL SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WHICH GOES FROM A 33N53W
TRIPLE POINT TO 30N54W TO 24N60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N60W
TO 20N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N61W 20N64W 16N66W. THIS PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SAME FOR THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AREA FROM PUERTO RICO AND
THE ISLANDS EASTWARD UNTIL THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EITHER EXITS
THE REGION OR JUST DISSIPATES. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 48W/49W NORTH OF 20N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 14N39W TO 20N33W 29N24W AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JET STREAM RUNS ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net