[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N25W 2.5N40W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC W OF 70W...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN US AND W ATLC N OF
24N W OF 70W. WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N-75W THEN
CONTINUES SW ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
ALONG 25N86W TO 23N94.5W. AT 14Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO THE NAPLES AREA IN FLORIDA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS TO 22.5N-85W.
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH SOUTH OF 25N OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CLEAR
SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE
FRONT MOVES COMPLETELY INTO THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE E WITH SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
OVER NW WATERS EARLY TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO
RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NORTH
OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
EAST OF 73W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THAT AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER NE COSTA RICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FROM 10N12N BETWEEN 82W-84W MOVING NORTH TOWARD SE NICARAGUA. A
FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND 31N48W COVERING THE AREA W
OF 50W TO 70W. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N52W AND COVERS THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC EAST OF 70W AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH LIES ALONG 31N35W 21N-40W 13N50W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 31N25W EXTENDING SW TO 22N35W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN
40W-70W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CAPE VERDE/CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
WESTERN AFRICA. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS OVER THE
E ATLC FROM 14N44W TO 27N-21W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD SE OF A LINE FROM 11N-48W TO 23N-29W.

$$
GR


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