[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 312314
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N22W 3N39W 2N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 100 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-28W AND WITHIN 250 NM TO THE NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC W OF 65W...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A 988 MB WELL LOW
OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N67W
26N78W AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N83W
23N89W 24N96W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN
100 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
STATIONARY IN THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN
EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT. A 1020 MB SFC HIGH HAS BUILT IN BEHIND
THE FRONT NEAR THE LA/MS COASTLINE. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC
AND N OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
HIGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND BE NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER IN 24
HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE AREA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE NE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 80W. THERE
ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF
AND MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MAINLY 15-20 KT TRADES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 14N70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS E OF 75W WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE W OF THERE.
THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE EAST ALLOWING THE TRADEWINDS TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 65W...
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BETWEEN 30W-60W...HAS FAIR
WEATHER THANKS TO A 1025 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N48W.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
32N23W 27N27W 23N32W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS
ARE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH IS N OF 28N W OF 80W. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN N OF 10N BETWEEN 55W-80W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
EXTENDS N OF 10N BETWEEN 22W-55W. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET WITH CORE
WINDS FROM 80KT-100KT LIES FROM 12N38W TO 25N25W. THIS FEATURE
IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY AIR ALOFT
EXISTS BETWEEN 37W-65W N OF 10N.


$$
CANGIALOSI


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