[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N25W 3N42W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 16W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 2N30W-6N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC W OF 70W...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND REGION
INTO THE GULF AND W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W ACROSS FLORIDA TO
OVER TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST OFF
THE COAST OF GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W INTO THE GULF
ALONG 27N88W TO 23N94W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N76W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N88W. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AS THE FRONT MOVES COMPLETELY INTO THE W ATLC BY WED
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO
RICO INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT SW OF A
LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N81W WHERE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THAT AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST FROM W PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. NO BIG
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH THE TRADES REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO N TO BEYOND 32N60W COVERING THE AREA W OF
55W TO 75W. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N56W AND COVERS THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 17N FROM 30W TO 55W. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N25W EXTENDING SW TO 22N37W.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-24N W OF
43W...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
25N34W-31N25W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N27W NE TO
BEYOND 32N14W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N14W TO 24N21W. JET
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 18N40W
ACROSS THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 30N10W.

$$
WALLACE



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