[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 2N21W 2N38W 1N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 3.5N FROM 13W-16W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
16W-22W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 1N28W-5N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE GULF N OF 25N FROM THE FLORIDA TO OVER TEXAS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N93W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
NEAR 30N78W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N90W. THE N PORTION OF
THE FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY E WHILE THE S PORTION IS BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
27N E OF 87W TO OVER FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF AND MOVE OVER THE W ATLC BY WED
MORNING...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S
OF 16N W OF 74W AND W OF 81W WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THAT
AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.
NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH THE TRADES REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA
N TO BEYOND 32N66W COVERING THE AREA W OF 55W TO FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N57W AND COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC AND
THE NE CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
N OF 16N FROM 35W TO 55W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
ATLC NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W WITH REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
7N44W TO 16N40W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE W EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N37W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N-25N W OF 47W. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 12N27W NE TO BEYOND 32N16W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1022 MB JUST NW OF CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N19W S TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net