[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 2N20W 3N33W 4N43W 4N51W.
NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS IN THE AREA...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERED THE NW GULF LATE THIS MORNING AND AS OF
2100 UTC...IT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE TO MEXICO
ALONG 30N91W 26N96W 24N98W 25N101W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE SW
NEAR 15 KT...BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ARE N-NW NEAR 15-20 KT. THE
GFS FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA IN ABOUT
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. A 1022 MB SFC HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AND BE NEAR MS/AL IN 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A 100-120 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA.
CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS N OF THE JET FROM
27N90W NEWARD ACROSS N FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES IN THE W
GULF W OF 90W N OF 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE N OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 20-25 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.  THE
SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW...SO NO
BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 84W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
13N75W. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FLOWING ANTICYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH FROM PANAMA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THIS MOISTURE OVER E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N59W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC W OF 40W. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N26W 25N35W 19N42W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...N OF
25N. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N17W. THIS
HIGH IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN N OF 10N
BETWEEN 55W-80W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W AND A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-35W.  WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-55W. DRY
AIR ALOFT EXISTS BETWEEN 50W-80W FROM 16N-25N AND IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC E OF 30W N OF 10N.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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