[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 3N30W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA...
AND S OF THE ITCZ... FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 1W-3W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 10W-23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC
DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  RIDGE AXIS IS FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO S TEXAS.  WIND SPEEDS ARE PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT
THROUGHOUT THE GULF.  AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS ALONG 30N94W 27N97W 26N100W.  THE FRONT IS VOID
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM WITH W FLOW TRAVERSES THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA.  AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE JETSTREAM OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 86W-89W.  EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE 24
HOUR POINT WITH 20 KT N FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO DECREASE TO 50-70 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH CLUSTERS OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED.  A BAND OF MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N61W MOVING E.  A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 20N42W.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N18W.
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
10W-40W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-20N
BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA


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