[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N31W 4N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-25W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAIN STATES E OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE W GULF N OF 23N W OF 85W TO
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
REMAINS N OF THE REGION ACROSS THE SE US AND SHOULD DIP INTO THE
GULF LATER TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 91W TO OVER
FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IS MOVING
ACROSS THE W GULF GIVING LOUISIANA... TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO
CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF
100 TO 130 KT CROSSES MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TO N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 24N88W THEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TO 110 KT OVER THE
FAR SE US NEAR 32N82W ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO
AND FUELING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
NE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE WAY TO THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC TO
OVER FLORIDA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NE GULF TODAY THEN PUSH E WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA
THROUGH VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE PRODUCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E
TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 16N W OF 75W WHERE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA GIVING
THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. NO BIG
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH THE TRADES REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N72W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W TO OVER
FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N61W AND COVERS THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC AND THE N CARIBBEAN. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N FROM 30W TO 65W. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 24N37W
THEN DISSIPATES TO 21N40W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N-30N W OF 45W. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 7N45W ENE ALONG 21N29W TO BEYOND 32N20W WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1024 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
33N20W S TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 14N-26N E OF 30W THUS LIMITING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net